"The beta distribution is best for representing a probabilistic distribution of probabilities- the case where we don’t know what a probability is in advance, but we have some reasonable guesses."
Read it!A critique of dynamite plots and suggestions for better alternatives.
Read it!Prediction intervals are commonly used for linear models but are often underused for random forests. Leveraging the fact that a random forest can provide a conditional distribution instead of just the conditional mean makes prediction intervals relatively straightforward to use in this context.
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