"What do R2, laboratory error analysis, ensemble learning, meta-analysis, and financial portfolio risk all have in common? The answer is that they all depend on a fundamental principle of statistics that is not as widely known as it should be. Once this principle is understood, a lot of stuff starts to make more sense."
Read it!Prediction intervals are commonly used for linear models but are often underused for random forests. Leveraging the fact that a random forest can provide a conditional distribution instead of just the conditional mean makes prediction intervals relatively straightforward to use in this context.
Read it!"The beta distribution is best for representing a probabilistic distribution of probabilities- the case where we don’t know what a probability is in advance, but we have some reasonable guesses."
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